Available 7 Days/Week       MON - FRI  8am - 7pm       SAT - SUN  10am – 6pm
Call us (786) 755-7400
Apply Now

The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You

The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You | Simplifying The Market

We’re currently experiencing historically low mortgage rates. Over the last fifty years, the average on a Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been 7.76%. Today, that rate is 2.81%. Flocks of homebuyers have been taking advantage of these remarkably low rates over the last twelve months. However, there’s no guarantee rates will remain this low much longer.

Whenever we try to forecast mortgage rates, we should consider the advice of Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:

“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and/or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

Many things impact mortgage rates. The economy, inflation, and Fed policy, just to name a few. That makes forecasting rates difficult. However, there’s one metric that has held up over the last fifty years – the relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury rate. Here’s a graph detailing this relationship since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You | Simplifying The MarketThere’s no denying the close relationship between the two. Over the last five decades, there’s been an average 1.7-point spread between these two rates. It’s this long-term relationship that has some forecasters projecting an increase in mortgage rates as we move throughout the year. This is based on the recent surge in the 10-year treasury rate shown here:The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You | Simplifying The MarketThe spread between the two is now 1.53, indicating mortgage rates could rise. Actually, a bump-up in rate has already begun. As Joel Kan, Associate VP of Economic Forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association, reveals:

“Expectations of faster economic growth and inflation continue to push Treasury yields & mortgage rates higher. Since hitting a survey low in December, the 30-year fixed rate has slowly risen, & last week climbed to its highest level since Nov 2020.”

How high might they go in 2021?

No one knows for sure. Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac, recently suggested:

“While there are multiple temporary factors driving up rates, the underlying economic fundamentals point to rates remaining in the low 3% range for the year.”

What does this mean for you?

Whether you’re a first-time buyer or you’ve purchased a home before, even an increase of half a point in mortgage rate (2.81 to 3.31%) makes a big difference. On a $300,000 mortgage, that difference (including principal and interest) is $82 a month, $984 a year, or a total of $29,520 over the life of the home loan.

Bottom Line

Based on the 50-year symbiotic relationship between treasury rates and mortgage rates, it appears mortgage rates could be headed up this year. It may make sense to buy now rather than wait.

Content previously posted on Keeping Current Matters href=”https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/?a=429471-6e7ae3e7d7cea4059ea7d116981248f9″>Keeping Current Matters

#floridakeysmortgage, #upperkeysflmortgage, #upperkeysmortgage

*Assumes 2.799% APR, 20% down payment, and conforming 30-year fixed rate first mortgage on a single family, primary residence. The monthly payment you enter includes only principal and interest. Additional required amounts such as taxes, insurance, home owner association dues, assessments, mortgage insurance premiums, flood insurance or other such required payments should also be considered. Not all individuals will qualify for a mortgage loan based on the payment entered. Rates cited are for instructional purposes only; current rates are subject to change at any time without notice.  **Posted APR is based on Mortgage Assumptions
 
Copyright © 2021 Fidelity Home Group supports Equal Housing Opportunity | All Right Reserved  | NMLS Identifier 1834853. Fidelity Home Group is not affiliated with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) or the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). Not intended for legal or financial advice, consult your own professionals if such advice is sought. Accessibility Statement  | Consent to Receive Electronic Loan Documents  |  Cookies Policy   |  Disclosures  | Email and Mobile PolicyFair Lending Policy  |  Mortgage Assumptions  |  NMLS Consumer Access  |  Privacy Policy  |  Terms of Use 

Florida Keys Mortgage | Fidelity Home Group
2011 Flagler Ave, Key West, FL 33040

Hours of Operation:

Monday - Friday 8am to 7pm EST
Saturday - Sunday 10am to 6 pm EST